TLDR

• Multiple firms including VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital filed for Solana ETFs, with SEC decisions expected within 240 days
• Grayscale’s SOL ETF filing faces a decision deadline of October 16, 2025
• Bloomberg analysts estimate 70% approval odds, while Polymarket data shows 84% probability
• SOL trades at $172.83, up 0.77% in 24 hours despite recent bearish trends
• SEC’s reduced crypto lawsuits and changing regulatory landscape boost approval prospects

Multiple financial firms have submitted applications for Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking a new phase in the cryptocurrency’s integration with traditional finance. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) now has 240 days to review these proposals, setting up a series of key decisions expected by October 2025.

VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital filed their Solana ETF applications, which were added to the Federal Register on February 18, 2025. These submissions follow Grayscale’s earlier filing, which was added to the register on February 12, 2025.

The timeline for these applications began taking shape in early February. The SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s Solana ETF amendment on February 6, followed by the four additional filings on February 11. This established a clear regulatory timeline for all five proposals.

Market analysts have expressed optimism about the approval chances. Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart calculate a 70% probability of approval for the Solana ETFs. This estimate could increase if current legal challenges regarding SOL’s classification as a security are resolved.

Data from Polymarket shows even higher confidence, placing the approval probability at 84% for 2025. This market sentiment reflects growing optimism in the cryptocurrency sector following recent regulatory developments.

The SEC’s current approach to cryptocurrency regulation appears to be evolving. The commission has reduced its aggressive stance on crypto-related lawsuits, which many observers interpret as a positive sign for ETF approvals.

Market Data

The price of Solana’s native token (SOL) has shown resilience during this period. As of the latest market data, SOL trades at $172.83, recording a 0.77% increase over 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap.

The path to potential approval comes during a challenging period for Solana. The cryptocurrency experienced a 42% decline year-to-date as of February 18, 2025, partly due to market reaction to events surrounding the LIBRA memecoin promotion by Argentinian President Javier Milei.

The broader cryptocurrency ETF landscape continues to evolve. Late 2024 predictions from Balchunas and Seyffart suggested a wave of crypto ETF approvals might include other tokens like Hedera (HBAR), Litecoin (LTC), and XRP.

Canary Capital has shown further interest in the crypto investment space, announcing an Axelar (AXL) trust on February 19, 2025. This trust will offer institutional and accredited investors exposure to AXL, with Coinbase serving as the designated custodian.

The Axelar trust represents the first investment vehicle focused on blockchain interoperability protocols. By early 2025, Axelar had established itself as the 11th largest blockchain by total value locked (TVL), exceeding $1 billion.

Industry support for Solana ETFs continues to grow. Major investment firms, including Pantera Capital, have expressed backing for SOL’s potential in the ETF market.

Each applicant brings unique features to their ETF proposals. These variations could influence the SEC’s decision-making process as they evaluate the applications over the coming months.

The October 16, 2025 deadline for Grayscale’s application serves as a key date for the industry. This decision could set precedents for subsequent Solana ETF applications and future cryptocurrency investment products.

The current review process follows established SEC procedures, requiring thorough evaluation of each application’s compliance with regulatory standards, investor protection measures, and market manipulation safeguards.